Matt Kokkonen is nothing if not an optimist.

When he talks about the long odds he's facing in his race against Rep. Lois Capps, a five-term Democrat from Santa Barbara, his broad smile and the lilt in his lightly accented voice don't waver a bit. He could be discussing a horse race in which he'll ride Secretariat and his opponent will climb on a rocking horse.

"I'm just an immigrant kid from Finland," he says. "I'm happy to be here."

Kokkonen, 62, is on the biggest stage of his life, a campaign for Congress. But if recent history, fundraising or voter registration trends are any guide, the curtain is likely to close Nov. 4 on the Republican hopeful.

Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 50 percent in the 23rd District, which runs down the coast from northern San Luis Obispo County through Oxnard and Port Hueneme.

The last three Republicans to run against Capps each received less than 40 percent of the vote.

This year, Kokkonen, a financial planner in San Luis Obispo, was the only candidate in the GOP primary. And in the first six months of the year, Capps' campaign outspent his by a margin of about 383 to 1.

"The Republicans are basically waiting until Lois Capps retires," said Eric Smith, a UC Santa Barbara political science professor who studies congressional politics. "This really isn't a very serious race."

'I'm serious about this'

Kokkonen knows the numbers, and still he is optimistic.

"I don't look at it that way," he said, referring to his underdog status. "I'm serious about this. I've always been serious about everything I undertake."

At a recent meeting of a Republican women's group in Santa Barbara, Kokkonen worked the room like any serious politician, going from a critique of the Wall Street bailout package to a tongue-in-cheek suggestion that the women send him "love letters" in the campaign donation envelopes he was passing out.

"He seems like a nice guy," said Sally Hanseth, a real estate agent from Montecito. "I'm going to vote for him. I think it's time for a change."

But the event was another reminder of Kokkonen's long odds.

It wasn't his luncheon; he was stumping before the main event, a speech by former Santa Barbara County Supervisor Mike Stoker, who is the county campaign chairman for Republican presidential hopeful Sen. John McCain.

And while Kokkonen made a good impression, neither Hanseth nor anyone else at her table had heard of him before.

'It makes people cynical'

One of Kokkonen's biggest obstacles is the 23rd District itself. It stretches more than 200 miles from end to end and covers a few distinct media markets, so it's hard for a new face to get noticed.

Driving from San Luis Obispo to Oxnard for a campaign appearance and then back home — as Kokkonen has done a few times — is an all-day endeavor.

Kokkonen refers to the district as a "ribbon of shame" and a "Capps-mander," drawn after the 2000 census to give Capps a safe seat.

"It's very bad, because it makes people cynical," he said. "It disenfranchises people, because they think, what's the use in voting?"

Capps has been in Congress since 1998, when she won a special election to replace her husband, Walter Capps, after he died during his first term.

At the time, she promised to run for no more than three terms. If she wins in November, she will begin her sixth full term. That has Kokkonen furious. It's the first thing he mentions when he's asked why he's running.

"She went back on her word," he said. "That breeds cynicism, if our congressional representatives cannot be trusted."

Kokkonen's other top priorities are energy, immigration, taxes and the economy. He wants to drill for oil immediately in Alaska, the Santa Barbara Channel and anywhere else it can be found. He wants to crack down on illegal immigration and establish a guest worker program.

And he wants a smaller government and lower taxes, including a full exemption on federal income taxes for everyone under the age of 25.

"I think that would be a great incentive for people, to pay no taxes while they're young, while they're building their businesses and building their families," he said.

'I've been blessed'

Kokkonen started building his adult life at age 16, when he immigrated to America by himself from his native Finland, "a legal immigrant," he points out.

He spent a few years on the East Coast, a few more in Europe, and then settled in San Luis Obispo, where he has run the same business for 37 years and been married to the same woman for 40.

"I've been blessed," he said. "I really want to give back to America some of what it has given to me."