For many consumers, today is the official start of the holiday shopping season. For many retailers, today, known as Black Friday, is viewed in a different light. For them, it's the start of the make-or-break season.

With the economy in a mess, consumer confidence has sunk to one of the lowest levels on record and credit-card delinquencies are soaring. Merchants nationwide are bracing for what is shaping up to be the bleakest Christmas shopping season in more than 20 years.

As usual, the 2008 holiday shopping season is filled with those hedged bets that economists and retail groups so love to make.

While the National Retail Federation, the nation's largest retail group, is taking an optimistic view by predicting holiday sales will rise 2.2 percent this year, compared to 2007, other retail organizations see trouble ahead.

A number of surveys conducted by the Consumer Electronics Association — the latest in early November — shows an "unprecedented negative sentiment" regarding the economy, with shoppers planning to slice holiday spending by 14 percent.

The American Research Group's 23rd annual survey on holiday spending offers worse news. ARG reports that Americans plan on spending almost 50 percent less on average this year, compared with 2007.

Such surveys are a worrisome harbinger for merchants, many of whom rely on Christmas sales for half or more of their annual sales and profits. To offset this negativity, stores are hoping to get turkey-stuffed shoppers in the spending mood by offering deep discounts and other incentives to get them to buy, buy, buy.

Starting with the Pacific View Mall in Ventura, and proceeding east to The Esplanade in Oxnard, onto Camarillo's Premium Outlets and up the grade to The Oaks in Thousand Oaks and over to the Simi Valley Town Center, shoppers will find huge savings on items such as electronics, toys, clothes and jewelry.

And, in an effort to attract the early-bird money — studies show people tend to spend the most money in the first store they visit — a few stores opened their doors in the wee hours this morning, some as early as midnight.

However, if fighting the crowds at Ventura County's main malls or getting up extra early. isn't your idea of a holiday, there are plenty of great bargains and deals to be found at small retailers and the mom-and-pop stores that dot the county's minimalls. As a bonus, the parking lots aren't as busy.

While the whole idea behind today's holiday shopping craze is to get people to buy something — after all, it is good for the economy — it is equally important not to go overboard.

Remember to spend only what you can afford and don't max out your credit cards. The holidays are about being merry, not going deeper into debt.