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County bracing for another dry winter
Rationing, fires and farm woes could result
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Debbie Boggio, left, resource specialist with the Las Virgenes Municipal Water District, shows Westlake Village resident Polly Rea how she can save water.
Along Highway 101 by the Thousand Oaks Civic Arts Plaza, the hills are dry. Las Virgenes Municipal Water District is making its customers aware of ways they can be more efficient in their use of water.
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More from County NewsTimes are tough out there, and the forecasts don't look so hot, either. Experts say we might have a way to go before the worst is realized, and they are bracing for hard times ahead.
Are we talking about the waning stock market? The exploded housing bubble? The credit crunch?
No, what is on many minds in Southern California is much more elemental — water.
With a forecast for winter rain that would excite only a Las Vegas bookmaker and a promise of less water delivery from Northern California, many in Ventura County are bracing for a dry winter, which could mean water rationing, another year of hillsides ablaze and the potential for farmers to have less water available for crops.
"Like most agencies, we are examining the options that we have in terms of looking at drought restrictions," said Jeff Reinhardt, spokesman with Las Virgenes Municipal Water District, which serves Westlake Village, Agoura Hills and other regions of western Los Angeles County, and is anticipating water allocations next year even if this winter is a soaker. "At this point, we are planning as if it is going to happen."
The National Climatic Data Center is predicting a 50 percent chance that this winter will be a drier-than-normal one for Southern California. It's also saying there is a 50 percent chance that it could be wetter, but considering that the last few winters have been among the driest on record, few are optimistic that it will be wetter.
Mother Nature and human nature
Jet Propulsion Laboratory climatologist Bill Patzert, who has an uncanny knack for correctly predicting the weather, thinks that this year will continue the dry cycle. As will the next year. And the next.
"In the past decade, there has been tremendous development and population growth, and so the demand curve has gone up, while the supply curve has gone down," he said. "It's the convergence of Mother Nature and human nature."
And some say the dry years may be more of the norm instead of the exception as climate change becomes a reality.
"We may be looking at drought as something that is no longer the rare exception, but it may become something we live with," said John Krist, CEO of the Farm Bureau of Ventura County. "It's not a happy scenario."
Added to the less-than-hopeful prediction of what the skies may yield is the threat of various regulations that will decrease the amount of water available to the state.
Last week, the state Department of Water Resources announced that only 15 percent of water requests from the State Water Project will be met, the second-lowest delivery in the agency's more than 40-year history. The state is being forced to pull less water from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta to protect an endangered fish, the delta smelt.
Don Kendall, general manager for Calleguas Municipal Water District, which provides water to most of the water retailers in eastern Ventura County, said his agency has been anticipating cutbacks. The district has been aggressively promoting water conservation in hopes that customers would cut use by 10 percent.
"It's not working," he said, saying there hasn't been any decrease in use at all. "It's a little disconcerting because it's been a pretty active campaign."
Although the district has water in storage, it's designed to provide water in case an earthquake disrupts the flow from the north or there is a severe drought. It's like pulling from your nest egg just to get by, which is not always best for long-term management, Kendall said.
There's a very real possibility that rationing is in the future next year, which may make people think a bit more about what a precious resource water is, he said.
At Las Virgenes, Reinhardt said his district has been aggressively encouraging users to cut back on water use, especially outdoors, where as much as 70 percent of residential water is consumed.
Depending on how things turn out this winter, there is a strong likelihood that Las Virgenes customers will face allocations next year, he said.
And other water agencies that don't rely on water from the state are equally concerned.
"Our concern is that if we don't get a good rain this year, we won't have anything to release next year," said Michael Solomon, general manager of United Water Conservation District, which stores water in Lake Piru and releases it to recharge groundwater basins along the Santa Clara River.
The smattering of rain that Ventura County has received so far this year isn't necessarily a good thing, he said. Often, early rain in the fall portends less precipitation in the winter, when the heaviest amounts traditionally fall. And if there isn't a good amount of rain to fill up the lake, less water could be pumped into the Oxnard Plain, where farmers use it on their crops.
Solomon said he's getting his staff ready for the possibility that farmers won't have as much water available next fall, when strawberries — the county's top crop — demand more water. All he can do is tell farmers who are expecting the water that there won't be as much available.
Casitas Municipal Water District General Manager Steve Wickstrum said that even though Lake Casitas is in good shape, his district is actively encouraging its customers to conserve.
Krist said that in the long run, regulations could be as much a problem for farmers as a drought.
Bigger salt buildup
United is facing a lawsuit to protect the endangered steelhead trout, which has the potential to force the district to alter the way it diverts water to underground aquifers that farmers use. Krist said that if California Trout wins a suit against United, it could put more of a pinch on farmers who have to pay more for less water.
He also said less rain means that more salt builds up in the soil because less will be washed away during normal irrigation. Too much salt can make plants less healthy and yield less.
And, of course, a dry winter means the potential for fires — again.
"It seems like our fire seasons are spanning a larger period of time," Ventura County Fire Department Capt. Brendan Ripley said. Two years ago, the department was on year-round fire watch.
The rain so far this year did little to help the dry conditions that have been a near-constant for years, Ripley said. Even if some vegetation was able to find enough moisture to flourish, it will die off if there is little precipitation this winter and just exacerbate the fire danger.
With little moisture in the short-term predictions and a record-breaking heat expected this week, nobody is liking what the forecast holds.
Posted by WaterSource on November 12, 2008 at 6:32 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Fresh water needs to be stored and held in reserve for CA in times like these. A request has been made to the Bureau of Reclamation to store an additional one million acre feet each year in the presently unused "air space" in Lake Mead.
The new water to be stored will be fresh water that would never otherwise ever be in the Colorado River or any of its tributaries. All naturally occuring water in and tributary to the Colorado River has long been allocated.
Bringing in new fresh water is like bringing your own bottle of water to the line at the drinking fountain. Those in line for drinking fountain water are not entitled to the water in your bottle because you don't have to bring your bottle of fresh water in order to stand in line with every one else.
In other words, "there is no damage" to the vested water rights of others if you bring in a new supply that is truely not part of, or ever will be part of, the existing supply.
The accumulation of a million acre feet of fresh water in Lake Mead each year would be available to solve emergencies, assure the generation of 1800 megawatts of renewable energy each year and provide for peak releases for restoration of environmental species and the Colorado River Delta. A measley 80,000 acre feet a year could be released into the old portion of the All American Canal for recharge purposes to keep Mexicali, Mexico and its 1.3 million from drying up. Maybe Mexico would trade border security for water...
Development of the new Source of water has been guaranteed not to damage the environment or the water rights of anyone, anywhere. As always, environmental concerns will have to be addressed, but in this case there are numerous ways to enchance the environment in addition to the restoration of the Colorado River Delta.
Surprisingly, the most difficult part is to get any entity/agency/bureau/district to commit to solve water shortage dilemmas. Storage of non-tributary fresh water in unused air space is only one of many options available to CA, but it is a place to start if any agency/entity/district in CA really wants the water bad enough to peak over the edge of the water bucket to see what else is available...
Ray Walker (Retired Water Rights Analyst)
waterrdw@yahoo.com
Posted by jamaro099 on November 12, 2008 at 7:11 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Ray,
I know nothing about the subject but are desalinization (sp?) a viable option for California?
Posted by cassandra2 on November 12, 2008 at 7:53 a.m. (Suggest removal)
We have known for some time that a predictable consequence of climate change is drought. Yet we continue to waste the water that nature sends us.
1. We continue to allow further housing development in our already overcrowded coastal area.
2. We continue to structure hardscape and sewers for speedy run-off to flood control channels, then our rivers, then our ocean polluting them all with the detritus of our streets. With restructuring to porous material we could slow run-off and encourage its seeping into the water table, where it is available to trees and plants. ("Save the swales!")
3. We continue to build in water wasting toilets in our homes rather than compost toilets that save water.
4. We continue to landscape with climate inappropriate lawns and other flora that demand scads of water.
5. We continue to live with outdated building codes that put barriers in the way of conscientious householders who want to recycle household water.
6. We continue to ignore warnings such as this instead of doing something about it.
Desalinization is something I know little about, but last I heard it was expensive. What I'm talking about is cheap and often low tech, sometimes using 19th Century know-how--like rain barrels and cisterns.
Even if we did everything right, we still could not support increasing numbers of new households. Lastly we need a population policy contrary to the growth is good idea. It's not.
Posted by vcsexplorer11 on November 12, 2008 at 8:36 a.m. (Suggest removal)
cassandra2,
You forgot close the US Borders to lower the INCREASE in US population that consumes water.
That, by itself, will save more then all of your suggestions combined.
Posted by DoctorDude on November 12, 2008 at 8:45 a.m. (Suggest removal)
50% chance of drier weather and 50% chance of wetter weather, yet the headline is "County Bracing For Another Dry Winter"? Nice.
Posted by cassandra2 on November 12, 2008 at 8:52 a.m. (Suggest removal)
You are mistaken in your last clause, but the immigrant population produces more kids per family by about 2 than native population. We sure don't need more people be they anglo, hispanic or other.
I get impatient with one size fits all solutions, which are usually the product of narrow minded fanatics. We should gain control of our borders, we should have a population policy educating people to the problems of species overshoot, and we should also do the water saving suggestions above. Plus encouraging eating less meat, but that's another whole essay.
I note the grandmother who provided a womb for her daughters THREE kids contributed to a family which already had two. And these were not illegals, just bad global citizens.
Posted by greengamer on November 12, 2008 at 8:54 a.m. (Suggest removal)
doctordude, i was thining the same thing! Uhh... so its a 50/50 whether its going to be a dry winter or not!! LOL! Thanks for the update Star. Are you guys running out of things to write about? I typically really like this paper, but when articles like this come out, makes me think that people are wasting their money....
Posted by rich on November 12, 2008 at 9:14 a.m. (Suggest removal)
We're all in this together and need to address some critical issues. Our economic woes mean nothing without water.
http://watershedrevolution.com/traile...
: ) Rich Reid
Posted by vcsexplorer11 on November 12, 2008 at 9:26 a.m. (Suggest removal)
cassandra2,
I said borders, which include immigrants from all countries. I do agree with the rest and I would also say that we should limit births for ALL people.
After this is done I would consider other water saving ideas.
To put it simply. How could anyone take saving water seriously if we don't take overpopulation or US laws seriously?
Definition of Fanatic: A person marked or motivated by an extreme, unreasoning enthusiasm, as for a cause.
I have a reason, Overpopulation-like China and India. US laws.
The fanatics are special interest like ACORN, La Raza, aclu, and their supporters, who reasons are not good for the population HERE.
Posted by Freedom1 on November 12, 2008 at 9:44 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Any suggestions on how I can convince my neighbor to stop using thousands of gallons of water to wash down the dirt and debrie from the cutter in front of her property every week? I've tried showing her how to simply sweep up the mess and put it in the green barrel. I've even given her a broom and large dust pan to pick up it up in. I've handed her brochures on how this grim travels to the oceans and is a major cause of pollution. Now she has her 9 and 13 year old kids out there helping her! I'm out of ideas and would welcome yours.
Posted by SimiProud on November 12, 2008 at 9:46 a.m. (Suggest removal)
How about proof of citizenship for ALL State, County and City benefits and programs?
I don't have problem with providing my proof of citizenship.
Do that and they'll all go packin'.
Posted by SimiProud on November 12, 2008 at 9:52 a.m. (Suggest removal)
By the Way...
Golden State Water in Simi Valley is proposing a "tiered" rate plan. I know they're doing it just to raise profits (I've checked their examples and it will cost me more)but maybe this is the only way. However, it would defeat the purpose if the State, County, or City came to the rescue of the so called "low income" people and subsidize their water wasting, by paying the bill.
Posted by cassandra2 on November 12, 2008 at 9:53 a.m. (Suggest removal)
No.
VCSexplorer, your post is not reasonable. Limiting births by any means compatible with a democratic society will take HEAVY sledding. The water shortage can't wait. It is more acute nationwide, indeed worldwide than this article suggests. Waiting on this will create suffering.
Your position is merely an excuse to do nothing because change is uncomfortable. I understand that psychology, but it is the way of the dodo.
I want to read your post, Rich, which suggests you know stuff. No time now. Looking forward.
Posted by eclipsewatcher on November 12, 2008 at 10 a.m. (Suggest removal)
One of the water-conserving measures I employ in my household, specifically with regard to toilet usage is this: "If it's yellow let it mellow, if it's brown flush it down."
Posted by jamaro099 on November 12, 2008 at 10:32 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I've been considering taking out the lawn in our front yard...I barely water it as it is...
Anyone have good ideas on what to put?
Posted by Equitable_Enforcer on November 12, 2008 at 10:58 a.m. (Suggest removal)
cassandra2 and others. Thanks for excellent questions and some great ideas. Cassandra2, you are right on target as to what must be done sooner than later.
1. Desalination: Worked with it as a program manager with Naval Construction Forces many years ago. Expensive. A good solution for potable water, but not total needs, at least not at this juncture. My opinion.
2. Jamaro099: About ten years ago, we turned our front yard into a Japanese stream bed, used mostly California native, draught resistant plants that require little water. Our luxery is some orchids, other tropical plants and roses. We removed all lawn in the side and rear yard area, opting for a deck and some 30 semi-dwarf fruit trees, inluding papayas (not actually trees), mangoes, avocados, mandarins, guavas, lemons, and more. Hand watering, only when needed and using "recycled" water, our water usage declined significantly and we have fruit year 'round. I agree with Cassandra. Regulations are outdated. We want to recycle all bathing and sink water and to have a collection tank for rain water. We are willing to invest and are working through the issues now.
Posted by Equitable_Enforcer on November 12, 2008 at 11:01 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Oops. Luxury, not luxery.
Posted by guy133 on November 12, 2008 at 11:20 a.m. (Suggest removal)
I guess the National Climactic Center Data is less meaningful than what people feel might happen.
Posted by rebel123 on November 12, 2008 at 4:27 p.m. (Suggest removal)
So 50% chance it could be drier, 50% chance it could be wetter. Basically this means maybe it will, maybe it won't! I wish I had a job where my accuracy requirements were that loose!
Posted by cassandra2 on November 12, 2008 at 5:05 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Great ideas here. Love your solutions Equitable, eclipse.
I live 3 miles inland in the Ventura River valley. I think we will be needing local food soon so I planted a number of fruit trees, not related to drought but other shortages soon to arise. Santa Rosa plums went nuts, ditto apricots. Aside from lemons, citrus is a so so crop right on the coast, but I have them but have to fight the ants to keep off pests they farm. My neighbors' avocados are awesome but except for dwarf varieties takes up mucho space. Ditto mangos, but I'd plant if I had space. Sapotes too. Sigh, so many wonderful trees, so little room.
For drought resistance rosemary is great ground cover, pretty and hardy. Lavender works great and smells nice. Lantana is good, also agave, aloe, Mexican sage, flax. Come to think, there is a section of Ventura around Ventura High with gorgeous lawnless landscaping from Poli down to Thompson. Check it out.
I use mulch for ground cover and to preserve moisture.
Trees do wonders for keeping down the temperature and decreasing evaporation. Don't do what I did--plant trees I love--eucalyptus and a gorgeous Bailey acacia only to discover they were fire traps.
You could also hire a pro to design for you. A good one is well worth the price. Also the Grow Food Party Crew (www.abundanceinbalance) is just aching to donate labor to start people's gardens.
Posted by sparks240 on November 12, 2008 at 5:40 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Maybe our political leaders can lead by example.
Stop turning our streets into rivers every night watering the center medians.
Rip up all the grass and other water hungry plants in the medians and plant drought resistant plants or hardscape.
Require all parks and golf courses to use reclaimed water.
Posted by vcsexplorer11 on November 12, 2008 at 6:05 p.m. (Suggest removal)
cassandra2,
I totally agree with you, but again, nobody takes anything seriously (especially our own government). I conserve electricity, for my own savings. Compared to most families, my water usuage footprint is extremely low also and my backyard is cement (nothing to water).
It is great you are doing your part.
Controling births will never happen in this nation we can only control our borders. If we don't we will all suffer but never blame ourselves.
Posted by eclipsewatcher on November 12, 2008 at 6:07 p.m. (Suggest removal)
cassandra2: Pomegranate shrubs are drought resistant. I grew up eating the fruit and it would not be Fall unless I've eaten one (or several). But it might be what you would call an acquired taste. Word of warning: Don't wear white when you eat them because the red juice (which was used as dye in ancient times) stains terribly.
Posted by JWFOXNEWS on November 12, 2008 at 6:44 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Breaking news=Rain barrels and cisterns don't work very well when ther is no rain. DUM DE DUMM DUMM
Posted by cassandra2 on November 12, 2008 at 6:47 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Cool, eclipse. I planted one on my hillside, mainly because they are beautiful plants as well as suited to Med. climate. My hard pack soil soon squeezed its roots piteously in successive summers, but it held on looking like walking death for years, and this fall it thrived. I got two pomegranates. Whoa!
They are a lot of trouble to eat, but they are so lovely to look at, ruby jewels set in a pale green frame. It was a pomegranate, they say, that Persephone ate 6 sections of and doomed her to 6 months as Pluto's queen in the underworld and the world to a seasonal hiatus of fecundity. Magic fruit!
I haven't tried using the juice for dye, but I'm thinking about it maybe in conjunction with water colors.
Posted by cassandra2 on November 12, 2008 at 6:57 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Also check out Brad Lancaster's books on harvesting rainwater. We have a lot more rain here than we keep under our present way of dealing with it. When it rains, we need to be ready to make use of what we get This is wisdom that allows people to live in places more arid than our own.
The whole point of cistern, etc. is to have storage for when it doesn't rain.
Posted by eclipsewatcher on November 12, 2008 at 7:09 p.m. (Suggest removal)
cassandra2: Oh man, they are a lot of trouble to eat, but sooooo worth it! My mom thinks I'm nuts, but I eat so many of them that my fingertips turn yellow! I guess pomegranate juice is the new health fad to ward off cancer, diabetes, and other ills. I wish the juice wasn't so expensive in the grocery store, but I understand why it is.
I hope your lone shrub thrives. Let me know how the water colors work out. . .
Posted by NowHearThis on November 12, 2008 at 8:50 p.m. (Suggest removal)
When the STAR is proven wrong, will they apologize? Quit speculating and report the news after it happens.
Posted by ibeam on November 12, 2008 at 9:04 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Population control is political death. Who gets to reproduce and who doesn't? Maybe people wearing yellow stars can't have kids.
The sierra club won't touch population control because that means immigration and that means the race card. Maybe when there are squatters in yosemite they'll take notice.
Introduce real costs of water and people will conserve. It is amazing what lengths people will go to when it hits the wallet. Introduce real costs of water treatment and maybe grey water and compost toilets might go somewhere. Compost toilets won't work in the urban environment though and what people flush down their toilets and sinks is scary. We need to get rid of some of the scary household chemicals we use oh so much of or grey water will just be another pollution disaster. There are still people who pour used motor oil down storm drains for christ's sake.
Native plants will require less water and maintenance. They will also help the local fauna especially the pollinators which need to be encouraged with the collapse of the european honeybee. One to consider is the Mexican Blood Flower - a milkweed that feeds the monarch butterfly caterpillars and all kinds of local pollinators; low maintenance and nice little flowers. Plant one and you will have monarchs. I'm told pomegranates, grenada in spanish, don't need irrigation after they are established in 3 to 5 years. You may want to water for the fruit though.
Posted by Tom_Johnston on November 12, 2008 at 11:01 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Wierd how posts wander off into unrelated subjects.
How this relates to the presence of undocumented workers is real stretch. Why not stray doggies and kitties?
I'm more thinkin' about a city that want's to tell me to plant more indigenous (low water consumption) plants and cut my H2O usage, then goes about putting in a 100 acre park soon to be full of ....lawn.
Ok, I know the kiddies need to play..yes, even more soccer, but there is a strange contrast in direction here 'eh??
Conservation for private citizens, prolifigate use by the City....
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