Jeff Gorell, a local attorney, announced earlier this month that he has created an exploratory campaign to run for state Assembly in 2010 in the 37th Assembly District, which runs through most of inland Ventura County.

It may seem oddly premature to start running for an election that will not take place for more than two years. However, the reality of California state legislative campaigns now is that, unless a prospective candidate is the incumbent or has great personal wealth, raising money and lining up support must start in earnest years in advance for legislative aspirants to have a chance.

This unfortunate state of affairs is the culmination of a number of political dynamics that have evolved over the past few years.

Legislative campaigns have become almost cost-prohibitive for most of our state's interested and qualified candidates. The numbers are mind-numbing. In 2006, for example, a total of $646 million was raised and spent by candidates and initiative campaigns.

A California primary election alone now costs successful candidates anywhere from between $500,000 and $1.2 million, depending on the district and the field of competitors. And that is just the primary election. Depending on the politics, general-election campaigns can cost a candidate up to $2 million or more.

As legislative districts grow larger and more diverse, the expense associated with communicating with constituents grows. Today's 80 Assembly districts represent about 450,000 people each, many of whom now speak Spanish. With today's art of targeted messaging, the costs of direct mail, radio, television and newspaper advertising is becoming increasingly expensive as districts grow and become more dynamic.

Gerrymandered districts have also added to the problem. Because the tainted 2001 reapportionment process created a landscape of safe Democrat and safe Republican districts throughout the Golden State, most of the election outcomes are determined not in the November general elections between the two major parties, but in the June primary election among fellow party members. As a result, most of the money and energy in contemporary California politics is directed to the early primary bouts, which have become conclusive for legislative elections, creating a truncated election cycle.

Another factor that is prompting early campaign starts is election finance reform. The current set of fundraising rules, as narrowed and defined by courts over the years, has simply forced most candidates to start earlier.

In a litany of holdings, starting with Buckley v. Valeo in 1976, the U.S. Supreme Court has stated that contributions to candidates can be limited; however, independently wealthy candidates cannot be limited in the amount they donate to their own campaigns. In California, and throughout the nation, this conclusion has created a system that forces candidates — like Gorell for example — who have backgrounds in public service and, therefore, do not have great personal wealth, to spend a great amount of time raising limited sums of money from a great number of donors.

They do so earlier than ever before, preparing for, and hoping to thwart, the entry of a rich candidate who can immediately, and with impunity, write himself a check for unlimited sums. So, to create a level playing field, many candidates have to start very early to build a war chest.

A final factor is also relevant to an early start. Starting early may help clear the field in the primary, and, in doing so, give early, solid footing on the path toward a leadership role in Sacramento. A divisive, costly and bloody primary fight might be avoided that may strain allegiances, and limited and valuable resources might be saved to focus on other important local campaigns and priorities, such as voter registration drives.

But a very early start will, hopefully, give any local candidate the momentum needed to arrive in Sacramento with the political support and money necessary to hit the ground running and be positioned for caucus leadership and fast action in an era of term limits.

Gorell's early exploratory campaign is not by accident. He is an adjunct professor here at California Lutheran University in Thousand Oaks and teaches the basics of public policy and politics to California's future government and political leaders.

He reckons that to win in 2010, he will need to develop early and strong support in the community. It looks like he has read the tea leaves and is doing just that.

— Herb Gooch, Ph.D., is a professor of political science and director of the Graduate Masters in Public Policy and Administration program at California Lutheran University in Thousand Oaks. He can be contacted at gooch@clunet.edu.