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Home sales on the rise, median holds at $420,000
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Southern California home sales in July rose to the highest level in more than a year, as buyers swooped in to purchase distressed properties, MDA DataQuick reported today.
There were 20,329 new and existing homes and condominiums sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties, up 16.7 percent from the previous month and up 13.8 percent from July a year ago, according to the San Diego-based real estate information service, previously known as DataQuick Information Systems.
Foreclosed properties accounted for 43.6 percent of the existing homes sold in the six-county region last month.
Last month's sales total was the first since September 2005 to rise above the year-ago level, DataQuick reported.
In Ventura County, the median price was $420,000 in July, a 27.9 percent decline from $582,500 a year ago, but no change from the month before.
A total of 870 properties were sold last month, up 11 percent from 784 sales in June 2007.
For Southern California, the median was $348,000 last month, down 2 percent from $355,000 in June and 31 percent from $505,000 a year ago.
The median is the midpoint, where half the homes sell for more and half for less.
"What we're looking at is a fire sale of properties in newer affordable neighborhoods that were bought or refinanced near the price peak with lousy mortgages," said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president. "What we're still not seeing is this level of distress spreading to more expensive or established neighborhoods."
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Posted by solvingadream on August 18, 2008 at 11:56 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Those price drops are amazing.
Posted by pyro152 on August 18, 2008 at 12:51 p.m. (Suggest removal)
All of the subprime foreclosed property on the market and waiting to go on to the market is going to increase sales. Put something on sale, it will sell. The Alt-A wave of foreclosures coming is going to start affecting some of the higher end homes. When these homes start to sell you will see a rise in the median home sales price.
Increased home sales and a rising median home price. I can already hear the realtors spinning this and telling everyone that "the bottom is in, buy a home now or you will miss out" based on this news. What they wont tell you is that the median price in the higher end homes is still falling along with the price per square foot.
I cant wait to till we get back to the reality of 3:1 home:income prices. I took a look in the Ventura Keys area and homes that sold 8 years ago for $600k are on the market for $2.5M. Sorry, I dont think so.
Posted by filipaisa on August 18, 2008 at 12:58 p.m. (Suggest removal)
although i do agree they have dropped a significant amount i dont think they will be fallingmore anytime...because in some good fairly new well established area neighborhoods i still havent seen them drop really and they are STILL in the HIGH end market where as areas that have been established for well over many years such as el rio/colonia/port hueneme are getting cheaper by the minute! new nehborhoods will still be in the high end market no matter what you call it and they low run neighborhoods will still be cheaper..
Posted by Freedom1 on August 18, 2008 at 1:16 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I have friends who bought a home in Simi two years ago for $560,000. Estimated value today - $430,000.
They just "walked away" from it. I really feel sorry for folks who bought property in the 2004-2006 timeframe - all have watched their equity disappear.
Posted by BabyzDaddy_01 on August 18, 2008 at 1:32 p.m. (Suggest removal)
It sounds like the sub-prime loans that adjusted were primarily in the lower priced homes in the county and as Pyro mentioned, the higher end homes will follow as those that got those bigger loans/lower risk (Alt A loans) for the bigger homes and can no longer afford them, will be "walking away" from those homes and thus dropping the median price in that range.
I'm keeping my ducks in a row in hopes of picking up one of those bad boys!!! Bigger lots, and nicer homes.
Posted by lakerboy805 on August 18, 2008 at 1:33 p.m. (Suggest removal)
NOW is the time to buy!!
Signed,
Realtor
Posted by Fred on August 18, 2008 at 2:04 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Prices are still way out of wack, particularly at the high end. Our politicians are about to rescue Fannie and Freddy with your tax dollars and all of the crooked bankers will still make tons of money trampling on your back. The system is crooked - our politicians should be drawn and quartered, pure and simple.
Posted by BabyzDaddy_01 on August 18, 2008 at 2:10 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Right Said Fred.....LOL!!!
Posted by freethought on August 18, 2008 at 2:12 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Thanks lakerboy805, I needed the chuckle.
filipaisa - Sorry to tell you this, but more price drops are on the way. I have been following all Ventura markets for a few years now, and they have ALL dropped, including Thousand Oaks and Camarillo (even Spanish Hills). Maybe you haven't been following for very long. Every single area is down significantly in the last year. As pyro152 said, the wave of ALT A loan defaults and forclosures are already picking up speed (we're done with the subprime default wave for the most part). And he/she was also right about the 3:1 home:income prices. That was the norm for many decades, and it will be again. Right now, it's still around 5:1 or 6:1 (was around 8:1 at the peak).
Posted by h2odog on August 18, 2008 at 4:25 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Fred-Yes, it is ironic that our politicians will save Fannie and Freddy and the crooked bankers but could care less about the average Joe. Oh, I'm guessing this too is problem caused by all those darn illegal immigrants, who else?
Posted by Fred on August 18, 2008 at 4:31 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I am so disappointed in our leadership. I really feel like they are in bed with bankers and wall street and just rape the people. I hate my government.
Posted by whatever on August 18, 2008 at 4:32 p.m. (Suggest removal)
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080818/a...
Posted by SouthernExile on August 18, 2008 at 4:34 p.m. (Suggest removal)
Okay...where are you SmashyCrashy. Help us out here.
Posted by vcsexplorer11 on August 18, 2008 at 5:53 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I know when its the right time to buy, when you see all those realtors who bought a hummer or BMW trading their cars in for a Nissan Sentra.
I put them in the category as Lawyers and Car Salesman.
Posted by filipaisa on August 18, 2008 at 6:02 p.m. (Suggest removal)
they have dropped but theres been a few homes that have sold for more then the listing price...for instance theres a home infront of mine it was listed as 440 no stove no appliances
but it sold for 480 theres another home that i know of around my brother...it was listing as 430 BIG home BIG lot...and it sold for about 460. even tho prices are right but BOY theres COM{PETITVE OFFERS and People WILL GO BEYOND ASKING PRICE...But I Dont Expect Droops If PEople Are Paying 20-60K more then what they are asking!
Posted by CollegeProf on August 18, 2008 at 6:06 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I bought my home in 2005 and have see a drop of 22.27%. Am I worried? NO...not one bit. Why? Because my equity has been rolled over and over since I bought my very first home for $27,000 in 1974. I am still way ahead. This whole situation is a problem only if you have one of the "bad" loans OR if you have to sell. Otherwise, I will just ride this out. After all this is my home, and I really have not lost anything.
Posted by filipaisa on August 18, 2008 at 6:23 p.m. (Suggest removal)
well the only people who are paying attention is the ones who want to buy right now if u buy it could be could but if u wait who kows what youll end up with..i have read as well and interest is on the rise...and im guessing that evens it out as the home prices drop it wont matter cous if u have a 7.5 in interest its not worth it to buy.
sooo if u want to buy...what you should really pay attention to besides home prices is the interest..cause no one wants to pay then you have to.
Posted by whiskeypete on August 18, 2008 at 7:33 p.m. (Suggest removal)
We want smashy!!!! We want smashy
Posted by SmashyCrashy on August 18, 2008 at 8:08 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I'll do a bigger post tonight at midnight when the other article comes out but the report is exactly in line with expectations, Median price has dropped $210k from the peak and will continue to do so. Sales for the year either peaked this month or next (I think it is this month) and its the banks pulling the money out of the market.
More later in the other article.
Posted by dcsfancy on August 18, 2008 at 8:51 p.m. (Suggest removal)
here is a link to a great article on what the economy is really like.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/90892...
Posted by tsetsaf on August 18, 2008 at 9:54 p.m. (Suggest removal)
This is a seasonal trend. Wait to late fall/winter; if prices are still stable then "Now is the time to buy" will be a true statement. Just remember a house is a place to live not a stock/bond.
Posted by r_u_kidding_me on August 18, 2008 at 10:22 p.m. (Suggest removal)
this just proves that we (SoCal) are our own economy :)
Posted by jill on August 18, 2008 at 10:28 p.m. (Suggest removal)
I am happy to have finally purchased my own home. Even if housing prices continue to go down, they will eventually come back up again as they always do, just like they did in the '90s. In the meantime, you start getting a great tax break.
Posted by SmashyCrashy on August 19, 2008 at 1:11 a.m. (Suggest removal)
Looks like they didn't come out with a new story.
As I mentioned before sales should be positive year over year for the rest of the year. From September forward last year each month was a historic low, the Year over Year comparisons are trivial and doesn't represent any strength in the market just a slight uptick from the horrific, unprecedented low sales of the last years.
Foreclosures are still defining the market and short sales aren't far behind. The resale homeowner is the minority in the market and most of them are in denial as to what is happening.
County unemployment is surging, up 26.4% YoY and 9.8% MoM. Major local employers like Countrywide are shedding jobs left and right and we are now in a feedback loop with weaker retailers like Mervyns and Linens and Things closing local shops. County and State governments are seeing declines revenues and are dealing with the budget impasse in Sacramento and are losing jobs as well.
You can see the CA unemployment graph going vertical here:
http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/
The vast majority of todays buyers have to bring significant downpayments to the table, the median downpayment in June (I don't have July #'s yet) was $83,600 dollars. Zero down liar loans are a thing of the past and the market still hasn't adjusted to home prices aligning with incomes. Big downpayment requirements are just another significant roadblock to the market. It is either 20% down or the expense and tighter requirements of mortgage insurance companies. Either way you are paying a significant premium just to buy a depreciating asset.
Average July sales from 2000 to 2005 was 1437 (it was actually more because I have old Dataquick data and they changed their methodology in 2007 to include more sales), for 2006-2008 the average July sales was 865. This is a very weak market and motivated sellers will continue to dominate for quite some time. While a sales bottom has been reached it will be a long time before a price bottom is hit. Save up your money and clean up your credit, your patience will be rewarded.
Posted by freethought on August 19, 2008 at 11:36 a.m. (Suggest removal)
"...theres been a few homes that have sold for more then the listing price..."
filipaisa - Yes, it's true that you'll see homes go for more than the listing price. Here's what that means: The seller listed the home for less than the comps in that area would dictate, which is the sign of a smart, realistic seller (even though buyers will kick themselves later). You make it sound like the norm, but it's no where close. In most cases, buyers are underbidding the listed price.
If you choose not to see that, it's fine. The truth doesn't require anyone's belief in it.
Time will tell...
Posted by CAPEDad on August 20, 2008 at 8:48 a.m. (Suggest removal)
"Foreclosed properties accounted for 43.6 percent of the existing homes sold in the six-county region last month" - simply amazing - 44%!!!.
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