THOUSAND OAKS — A positive attitude can go a long way in coping with the economic slowdown currently not being enjoyed throughout Southern California.

That was among the findings presented at First American Title's 2007 Ventura County Real Estate and Economic Update Conference held Sept.6 at the Hyatt Westlake Plaza. First American Vice President Ron Golden was the conference moderator.

Dr. Terry L. Paulson, noted psychologist, columnist and author, offered the concept that optimism provides a distinct advantage during challenging economic times. "Bad news is easy to find," pointed out Paulson. "A recent study of 100 nights of evening news documented 8,600 negative items versus only 370 positive stories.

"The attitudes people bring to economic conditions impact opportunity. The very acts of raising capital and making investments are based on the simple belief that tomorrow will be a better day. That makes economic growth and opportunity possible.

"Attitude makes a difference. Those who prosper demonstrate flexible optimism, resourcefulness, and persistence in the face of adversity and change. Others choose victim thinking," he continued.

Paulson urged conference attendees to "nurture an appreciation for the long-term economic strength of the United States and Ventura County. Dispute catastrophic thoughts by checking fears against facts. Trade victim thinking for constructive action. Look for silver linings. Tough times can be a time to reinvent a business, cut expenses, and find undervalued investments," he added.

William D. Dallas, chairman of Dallas Capital Management, provided the audience with the following three possibilities:

1. The subprime crisis is an overblown event.

2. The subprime crisis leads to the end of a business cycle and into recession.

3. The crisis leads to change and could result in a fundamental shift in how the U. S. system works.

Dallas pointed to six variables that all are positive compared to the 1990 through 1996 period of economic difficulties:

1. The U.S. and California economies are both still growing.

2. The U.S. and California lost jobs in the 1990s versus job growth today.

3. Unemployment was 8.1 percent through the 1990s versus 5.1 percent now.

4. Mortgage rates were 8 percent back then versus 6.3 percent now.

5. Homes sales, as depressed as they appear to be, are still well above the 1990s.

6. Median home prices are still increasing versus a 12 percent drop in the 1990s.

Based on current economic conditions as compared to the last major downturn, Dallas concluded that the U.S. is not likely to experience a recession, the Federal Funds rate will settle at 5.25 percent, and overall, the economy will decline modestly in 2007, with slight improvement thereafter.

Dr. Mark Schniepp, principal of California Economic Forecast and keynote speaker for the First American Title Conference Series, offered little cause for optimism in the short term, and no finite means to determine when the economic trauma will end.

"Home buyers continue to be scarce, delaying their purchase decision as long as they perceive housing prices to be in decline," Schniepp said.

"Defaults on home loans have soared, eclipsing the previous record set 15 years ago. Foreclosures are surging and are likely to reach unprecedented levels. Sales during August were horrific, and larger price concessions appeared more common by existing Ventura County home sellers. August may have been the low point for the housing recession.

"While we'd like to see a sharp V-shaped cycle for the current housing disaster, that is not likely. A V-shape would imply that housing transactions decline sharply, bottom out quickly, and begin a convincing rebound, as fast upward as they had declined," he said.

"Instead, we appear to be in the midst of a lazy U, where the bottom of the cycle lengthens out for a number of months before gradually moving upward. We believe we're in the base of the U, or close to it. We just do not know how long the base will last. Cycles characterized by Us and lazy Us are painful because there is no quick and convincing recovery from the very bottom."

Schniepp did point to a generally positive commercial real estate market, strong consumer spending, and continuing demand for skilled workers in Ventura County as strengths within the local economy.

Lead Sponsors for the Update conference were Homes & Land Magazine, Lee & Associates, and Weston, Benshoof, Rochefort, Rubalcava & MacCuish. Corporate Sponsors included Jackson/Demarco/Tidus/Peckenpaugh, Mid-State Bank & Trust, RAP Communications, and Union Bank of California.

Conference Sponsors were Affinity Bank, CB Richard Ellis, City of Simi Valley, First American Exchange Company, First California Bank, Hall & Foreman, Inc., John Laing Homes, NAI Capital Commercial, Pacific Coast Business Times, RBF Consulting, Santa Barbara Bank & Trust, Ventura County Credit Union, Westlake Park Place by Steadfast Companies and The Amstar Group, and Wells Fargo Bank.

Additional information about the First American Conference Series is available at www.fatoutlook.com or by calling RSVP Events at (805) 969-5244.