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Herdt: A Democratic civil war?

Local Senate primary race could create a split

Arleigh Kidd, a teachers' union operative in eastern Ventura County, has had many Democratic candidates come to him over the years asking for the California Teachers Association's financial support.

Kidd's answer: No can do.

The reason is that eastern Ventura County has always been a lost cause for Democrats. The partisan deck is stacked against them because there, in the shadow of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, Republicans rule.

Kidd advises Democratic candidates to go ahead and run for office and, if they come close, to come back and talk to him the next time.

Until Jim Dantona came along, no one had ever passed that test.

That explains why Kidd was one of more than 100 supporters who paid $250 apiece to attend a campaign kickoff for Dantona last week in Simi Valley.

Dantona ran for county supervisor last year and came very close. Now, he's running for the state Senate, and Kidd is taking notice. He says he will go to bat for Dantona when the regional CTA organization recommends legislative candidates for campaign funding.

"Jim's the first Democrat around here that I've seen who can attract Republicans and independents," Kidd told me.

Dantona's candidacy has energized east county Democrats who have endured years of famine. Now, they are faced with an unfamiliar problem: the possibility of a food fight.

Last week, former Assemblywoman Hannah-Beth Jackson, of Santa Barbara, who represented western Ventura County in the Assembly for six years, announced that she, too, will seek the Democratic nomination in the 19th Senate District.

If neither backs down, it will set up a contested Democratic primary in that rarest of legislative districts in California: one that is potentially competitive.

The buzz in the district and in Sacramento is that the 19th District, which has seen Republican registration diminish over the last few years, will be a major target of both parties.

That means, Kidd said, Democrats must think seriously about the viability of their candidate. "I like Hannah-Beth," he said, "but I know what people in this area will say: Santa Barbara liberal.'"

On the west end of the county, Democrats are of a different view. They believe Jackson has demonstrated an ability to work with people of both parties to get things done.

"She worked very closely with every school district she represented," said Ventura Unified School District trustee Debbie Golden. "She was ever so sincere in wanting to do the right thing for people."

Golden notes that Jackson's record has attracted bipartisan support. "Everyone on our school board — and there are some who are not Democrats — has endorsed her."

If there is to be a Democratic primary, a key to the outcome could be whether Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata takes sides. His support would send a strong signal to financial contributors.

Dantona has strongly hinted that Perata will be in his corner. Invitations to Dantona's fund-raiser indicated that Perata would be in attendance, but the Senate leader was a no-show.

Sen. Sheila Kuehl, who supports Jackson, said Perata will be neutral throughout the campaign.

But what about Dantona's implication that he has Perata's support?

"A number of us who are senators inquired about that," Kuehl said. "Don indicated he was willing to have Hannah-Beth use his name as well."

Within the Democratic caucus, there appear to be other senators pushing Perata the other way. Freshman Sen. Alex Padilla of Los Angeles was also a no-show at Dantona's fundraiser, but was represented by his ally and former boss, L.A. City Councilman Tony Cardenas.

Cardenas said he brought greetings from Padilla and Sen. Gil Cedillo, then plainly implied that Perata is in Dantona's camp.

"When you have the pro tem support you, you have tremendous support that no one else can beat," Cardenas said.

The bottom line, however, is that Jackson and Dantona each have allies within the Democratic caucus, which makes it unlikely that the Senate leader will publicly profess a favorite.

If an east-west showdown develops in the Democratic primary, the numbers favor Jackson. There are 85,147 registered Democrats in the portions of Senate district she represented in the Assembly (Santa Barbara County and the cities of Ventura and Ojai). There are 72,486 in the remaining Ventura County portions of the district (Camarillo, Moorpark, Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks).

If an east-west split materializes, there will be at least one person hoping that it develops into a full-scale Democratic civil war. That would be former Assemblyman Tony Strickland of Moorpark, the only announced Republican in the race.

— Timm Herdt is chief of The Star's state bureau. His e-mail address is therdt@VenturaCountyStar.com.

Comments

Posted by jw1000 on October 24, 2007 at 9:22 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Just say no to extremism in Ventura County. No to Strickland.

Posted by sslocal on October 24, 2007 at 10:30 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Let um both run and may the better person win.

Posted by Tom_Johnston on October 24, 2007 at 8:05 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Democrats need to realize that the agenda should be about centrist politicians who can get elected.

If the Democratic party wishes to set, and control the agenda, the politics of the past won't work. This is not the time for a "turf war".

The Republican Party as would be represented (and I use that word loosely) by far-right Strickland is the agenda to be concerned with. If a moderate Dantona has a better chance to beat him, that should be the priority.

Don't get me wrong, I like Hanna Beth too, but you've got to get practical about things.

Posted by Poppa on October 25, 2007 at 4 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Vote for Tony Strickland? HAHAHA, I would not vote for Tony Strickland if he was the last lifelong never had a real job politician on earth!

Posted by wiener on October 26, 2007 at 2:11 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Timm Herdt drills down to the core issue: Who is most electable? This is still a Republican-leaning district, and Tony Strickland is still the odds-on favorite to win the general election. Plus, Tony has swept the field of serious Republican opponents in the primary, so he won't have to spend a lot of money to get the nomination.

On the Democratic side, Jackson is certainly perceived as the more liberal candidate, and she'll have a much harder time making in-roads into the more-conservative general electorate. Jim Dantona is viewed as a more moderate Democrat, and he came surprisingly close to an upset victory in last year's Supervisorial race. He'd stand a much better chance (albeit still under 25% in my opinion) of beating Tony.

But neither Democrat will have much chance at all if they first spend months (and hundreds of thousands of dollars) wrestling with each other for the primary nomination. If she wins such a struggle, Jackson will get creamed by Tony in November. If he wins such a struggle, Jim's negatives (which are high to begin with) will have been driven up to the point where he'll have a very difficult time attacking Tony without suffering from the backwash.

I guess it's not too surprising: This is a district which is becoming more competitive and which will have no incumbent in the race. It's the chance of a lifetime (or at least eight years of a lifetime) for aspiring local Democratic politicians, and they will not let that chance slip away without a fight, even if the result is a Pyrrhic victory.

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