In 1954, while sensing it was time to acquire an heir apparent to quarterback Otto Graham, Cleveland Browns coach Paul Brown drafted Bobby Garrett No. 1 overall.

Garrett had it all. Or so it seemed. He had the size, the arm strength, the Stanford education. But he had something else Brown hadn't noticed back in the days before there was a scouting combine, psychological testing, pro days, personal interviews and endless speculation leading up to the draft:

Bobby Garrett stuttered. Badly. So badly, in fact, that he couldn't communicate Brown's complex offense quickly enough to be of any use to the legendary coach and his dynastic team. Brown unloaded Garrett in a trade with Green Bay, failing to mention the stuttering problem, of course. Garrett played one season, passed for 143 yards and was kaput.

Draft preparation certainly has evolved since then. But the success rate remains surprisingly hit or miss, sometimes with no tangible rhyme or reason. Even at the top of the draft, it's still very much a buyer-beware market; probably more so because of the salary cap, an increasing need for rookies to contribute immediately, skyrocketing salaries and intense public scrutiny of draft picks.

"If you make a mistake at the top end, it can set your franchise back three to five years," NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock said. "Ryan Leaf was that kind of mistake for San Diego (No. 2 overall in 1998). This year, I can't get over how good and talented (Louisiana State quarterback) JaMarcus Russell is. It just blew me away. If I had the first, second, third, fourth, fifth pick in that draft, I would be tearing apart his personal life trying to figure out whether or not I could trust this kid with $10 million."

Actually, $10 million is a low-ball figure for the player the Oakland Raiders might take No. 1 on Saturday. Last year's No. 1 pick, Houston Texans defensive end Mario Williams, signed a six-year, $54 million contract that included a rookie record $26.5 million guaranteed. Taking into account natural yearly pay increases and the fact Russell might establish a new physical prototype for an NFL quarterback, he almost certainly would stand to break Williams' monetary record.

"I've never seen a kid that big (6-5, 256) who can sit there and just have people hanging on him and make the throws he can make," said Houston Texans coach and former NFL quarterback Gary Kubiak. "He reminds me a little bit of Daunte Culpepper, but a little bigger. I'm sure he's going to continue to be a great player."

Financially, any sort of tumble at the top of the draft comes with significant repercussions. Based on the contracts of last year's top seven picks, Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn, once considered the likely No. 1 pick this year, stands to lose more than $11 million in guaranteed money if he falls to the Vikings at No. 7, as some analysts predict he might. Last year's No. 7 pick, Oakland Raiders safety Michael Huff, signed a five-year, $22.5 million deal with $15.1 million of it guaranteed.

"I'm the most prepared collegiate player for the NFL in this year's draft," Quinn said. "There's not one other player that's had the kind of coaching that I've had the past couple of years. There's not one other player that's done what I've done the past couple of years. I am the best leader for a team."

Meanwhile, Calvin Johnson, the freakishly athletic receiver from Georgia Tech, has declared himself the best athlete in the draft. The Raiders have at least considered investing their millions in him rather than Russell. Johnson said he's ready to handle the fame and fortune.

"Money's not going to do anything for me," he said. "I mean, it will do something for me, but it's not going to change me."

Oklahoma running back Adrian Peterson, immensely talented and fast, is a wild card at the top of the draft because of past injuries. Clemson pass-rushing end Gaines Adams and versatile LSU safety LaRon Landry are being jockeyed about near the top of the draft as the first defensive player to be selected. And then there's Wisconsin left tackle Joe Thomas, who indicated he's the safest pick of all.

"If you think about it, just about every offensive lineman who's been picked in the top five, top 10 in the last few years has gone on to start and start for a long career," Thomas said.

Timing and/or luck often plays a role in the success or failure of a No. 1 draft pick. The best example might have come in 1970.

The previous fall, the Chicago Bears and Pittsburgh Steelers both finished 1-13, worst in the league. A coin flip decided the No. 1 pick. The Steelers won, selected Louisiana Tech's Terry Bradshaw and won four Super Bowls that decade. The Bears traded the No. 2 pick to Green Bay, got little value in return and had one winning record over the next 10 seasons.

Decades ago, when there were fewer teams, no free agency and no salary cap, No. 1 picks were developed slowly. Sometimes, they simply weren't good enough to even make an impact.

In 1955, the Baltimore Colts drafted Oregon quarterback George Shaw No. 1 overall. A year later, Shaw was injured and was replaced by a young man the Colts had found playing semipro football for $6 a game in Pittsburgh. The kid was a ninth-round pick of the Steelers in 1955, but was quickly released. Perhaps you've heard of him. Johnny Unitas.

It's hard to believe now, but, yes, there once was a time when it made more sense financially not to play professional football.

In 1936, Jay Berwanger, the first Heisman Trophy winner, became the first player ever drafted. The Philadelphia Eagles selected the halfback from the University of Chicago, but he didn't want to play for them.

Bears owner and coach George Halas acquired his rights. Berwanger asked for $25,000 over two years. Halas said heck, no. Berwanger said goodbye to pro football without playing a down and went on to become a wealthy businessman.

Times change. Rapidly. Twenty years ago, University of Miami quarterback Vinny Testaverde, the No. 1 pick by Tampa Bay, made the cover of Sports Illustrated with a bold headline that blared, "The NFL's $8 million man." Of course, that was $8 million over six years. Ten years ago, the Rams selected Ohio State offensive tackle Orlando Pace. After holding out, he signed for $25.6 million over seven years with a $6.3 million signing bonus. And that was $28.4 million less overall and $20.2 million less in guarantees than Williams got last year.

The Pro Football Hall of Fame has 12 members who were No. 1 picks. It also has 12 members who were No. 2 picks. But only once has it happened in the same draft. In 1983, John Elway went No. 1 and Eric Dickerson No. 2.

That has created some interesting what-if scenarios for some teams over the years. Such as the Buccaneers, who took Ricky Bell ahead of Tony Dorsett (Dallas) in 1977. Or New Orleans, which took George Rogers when it could have picked Lawrence Taylor (Giants) in 1981. And although it's far too early to judge, Williams, last year's No. 1 pick, will forever be compared to Reggie Bush, the Heisman Trophy winner who slipped to No. 2 (Saints) in what was a stunning late development.

On Saturday, the Raiders will be on the clock. While it will be interesting to see who is selected first, it will be more interesting to see how that pick will be remembered years from now.

Will he be lumped with Vikings Hall of Famer Ron Yary (1968) or Walt Patulski (Bills, 1972)? Bradshaw or Jeff George (Colts, 1990)? Dallas Cowboys Hall of Famer Troy Aikman (1989) or, of course, Bobby Garrett?