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Small storm could worsen problems
Areas hit before are vulnerable
Though the storm predicted to hit today and continue through Wednesday is relatively small, bringing up to 1 inch of rain along the coast and up to 4 inches in the mountains, officials say the rain could further affect unstable hillsides, soggy crops and damaged roads.
"Normally this storm wouldn't be an issue, but with all the damage we have from the last storm, we could have some problems," said Scott Holder, a hydrologist with the Ventura County Watershed Protection District. "The hot spots are the areas damaged by the last storm."
Crews are working along highways, in canyon roads and in hard-hit areas such as Casitas Springs, among other places, to get the mud and debris out of the way before another storm hits. However, many culverts are still clogged and much of the mud has been simply moved aside, not carted away. A new, heavy storm could plug culverts and cause flooding in the streets again.
Both the county and Caltrans have hired contractors to help clear and stabilize damaged roads, but months of work remain.
"There is so much widespread damage that we are not going to have everything up to full working capacity before the storm," Holder said.
More than $12 million in damage was done to state roads in Ventura County, said Douglas Failing, Caltrans District 7 director. Emergency repairs to clear and stabilize roads continue, but officials are concerned what a new storm might do to the roads.
Highway 33 could close again
Roads into and out of Ojai were hit hard, and Failing said the cliff bordering a storm-eroded stretch of Highway 33 south of Oak View makes him nervous.
Highway 33 near Creek Road was closed after the last storm and was limited to one lane as crews worked to clear it last week. On Thursday, a second lane paved on the shoulder of the highway was opened to allow traffic in both directions, but permanent repairs are expected to take months and will include stabilizing the hillside.
"We have to monitor it," said Failing. "If that hill starts to come (down), we're going to have to close the road for public safety."
Highways 101, 126 and 150 were also hit hard, Failing said.
Today's forecast is a result of a Pacific Northwest storm colliding with one out of Hawaii, said Stuart Seto, National Weather Service weather specialist. The heaviest rains are expected between tonight and Wednesday morning, with rain falling at a rate of 0.1 inches an hour. Some south-facing mountains could get as much as 0.25 inches of rain an hour, he said. Another, smaller storm is expected to hit Thursday. The weekend should have sunny skies again, he said.
More slides possible
Holder said mudslides could happen in saturated, unstable areas, including the Santa Monica Mountains, burned areas in the county and in La Conchita, where 10 people died in a mudslide earlier this month.
Some residents have moved out until the rainy season passes and others are nervously eyeing the gash in the hill behind their houses, said La Conchita resident Jerry Nesnadny.
"I would guess that everyone is going to be on guard until we get to the summer months," said Nesnadny. "That's how life will be there for the next several years, until something is done."
Retired University of California, Santa Barbara, geology professor Arthur Sylvester said it's impossible to know when another mudslide might hit. It depends on how saturated the ground is. But there is no magic equation to know when the ground is heavy enough to cause a mudslide, he said.
In Casitas Springs, where entire homes were filled with mud from flooding, many in the community are operating backhoes and tractors, scraping mud from neighbors' yards to ensure proper drainage when the rain comes.
"We can't take any more," said Brian Sloan, one of the many residents trying to repair the community. "You can't stop Mother Nature, so we dig and dig as quick as we can."
Too soon for the farmers
Ventura County Agricultural Commissioner Earl McPhail said farmers need more dry weather to help recover from the nearly $52 million in crop damage from the recent rains. Any fungicides farmers have put on their crops to combat mold could be washed off if the rain comes too hard, he said.
"Right now is not a good time for more rain," he said.
However, once the rain stops and the sun comes out for months on end, new problems will arise.
Ventura County Fire Department Chief Bob Roper said a wet season like this one stimulates more growth of oat grass, which dries out and creates fuel for forest fires come fire season.
"When we don't have rain, we have issues with dry vegetation," Roper said. "If it's not one thing, it's another. It's kind of a vicious cycle."




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